Ireland, Luxembourg and the Netherlands would be the first countries to feel the impact of a British exit from the EU according to the OECD.
In a recently published report, the Paris based organization highlighted the uncertainty Brexit would bring to Britain’s European partners and their economies. They said: “The UK decision to exit could reinforce uncertainty about the future of the European Union and the Single Market. The resulting uncertainty would lead to more difficult financial conditions in other European countries.”
And the OECD said that Ireland, Luxembourg and the Netherlands were “relatively highly exposed” to the British economy as measured by three specific criteria. These include UK imports of goods and services from each country as a share of that country’s GDP in 2014, investment in Britain and interest reflected through Brexit searches online.
While the three Northern European nations are relatively highly exposed to a Brexit, France, Germany and Spain; the major countries in the Eurozone are only “moderately exposed” to the British economy on all three counts. However the OECD were quick to point out that a leave vote could: “heighten uncertainty, reduce confidence and result in a series of financial market shocks” in Britain and across Europe.
They said: “In the UK, financial market shocks are assumed to be of a magnitude similar to those observed during the acute phase of the euro area crisis in 2011-12, but much smaller than during the financial crisis in 2008-09.”
Consequences for British workers are assumed to be dramatic with the OECD forecasting that a Brexit would cost British workers the equivalent of a month’s pay by the end of the decade. They anticipate that by 2020 GDP will be more than 3% down on what it would have been if Britain had remained in the EU. It amounts to the equivalent £2,200 per household at today’s prices. The situation doesn’t get better with added years. In fact, by 2030 the OECD project that the loss of GDP would rise to more than 5% – a loss of £3,200 per household.
Find out more about registering to vote at our EU referendum blog post. And for more information on current voting intention, visit our EU referendum survey blog post.